by Mark Gery
Barring the capture of Saddam Hussein, President Bush has exactly two
options in Iraq.
Both are terrible.
He can keep our exhausted troops in Iraq for the long haul, exposing them
to daily attack and carnage. Or he can bite the bullet himself and
arrange a phased withdrawal, leaving the country in the hands of selected
Iraqis and a still to be determined international force.
For now, leaving Iraq is completely off the table. With Hussein
still at large, supported by scores of armed loyalists, foreign fighters
and thousands of Republican Guards sitting at home any exit
of U.S. military firepower would almost certainly be followed by a return of
Saddam’s regime - no matter what governing contingent was left in place.
Putting aside the immense political fallout, a resurgent Saddam would
enjoy a far
greater position than before the war. Why? U.N. trade sanctions
are no longer in place on Iraq. And there is very little chance the Security
Council would re-impose them since the country seems devoid of banned
weapons.
Free to buy modern, conventional arms on the world market again, Hussein
and his still-existing army would quickly solidify their position in Iraq
and again stand tall over the Persian Gulf.
This undesirable scenario is made even worse now that the White House has
announced its commitment to reduce the American “footprint” in the Gulf
region. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and several other countries will soon see a
dramatic reduction of U.S. troop presence and military equipment. Without
proof of banned Iraqi arms or other tangible threat, there is no guarantee
these states would allow us to redeploy to their territory.
Simply stated, any withdrawal of American forces that opened the way for a return of Saddam would
be unmitigated disaster for the President - both on
the home front and in the region.
But in choosing to stay the course in Iraq Bush is exposing himself to
serious domestic pressure because of Hussein’s continuing campaign of
agitation in Iraq.
Before going underground Saddam’s regime folded up almost every aspect of
the Iraqi government, opening the way for looting, destruction and disorder on
an unprecedented scale. Since then they have shifted their energies to
disrupting our stabilization effort through rumor spreading, intimidation of friendly Iraqis, and
direct sabotage of vital infrastructure components.
And they continue to pick off our servicemen with near impunity.
In the panicked pursuit for those responsible, our troops are bursting
into homes at all hours, frightening women and children, and instilling a
deep sense of humiliation among Iraqi men.
Such resentments, combined with frustrations about inadequate services
and security, are producing overt anger among many Iraqis who might
otherwise welcome a new era in their country. It is only a matter of time
until they have had enough and begin gravitating in large numbers towards
the most obvious figure of defiance - Saddam Hussein.
Increasingly, it appears that Saddam and company have created a no-win
situation for the U.S. in Iraq. The more disorder they foment the more
pressure we will apply, leading to broader resentment and additional sympathizers
willing to take action. Additional violence is the likely result, kicking
off yet more pressure from our side.
The escalating debacle has already claimed General Jay Garner, our first
civilian administrator and, apparently, General Eric K. Shinseki, who abruptly
retired as Army Chief last month after lodging veiled complaints about the
Iraq operation.
Tommy Franks, our overall commander for Iraq and the Middle East,
also appears to have had enough. Three weeks ago he resigned as head of
CENTCOM and has announced he will end his military career completely.
The one remaining hope for the White House? Track down Saddam Hussein
himself. Only by capturing and displaying the Iraqi strongman for all his countrymen to see will we
scatter the resistance, break the cycle of
subversion, and give our weary servicemen a reasonable chance at success.
This promises to be no easy task, however, as Hussein, mindful of his
symbolic importance to the resistance, has almost certainly set up an
elaborate security network to keep his whereabouts hidden for the long term.
Mr. Mark Gery is an independent Researcher and Analyst on Iraq and the Middle East. He is active in the anti-war movement in southern California and is an affiliate Speaker for EPIC - The Education for Peace in Iraq Center in Washington D.C. He is currently writing a comprehensive text on the U.S.-Iraq conflict entitled "Desert Nightmare: the Truth About the Gulf War, the Middle East and Saddam Hussein's Challenge to America."
