The departure of the Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) from the
National Alliance came as a shock especially when the PAT
chairman attended the NA meeting with the president the day
before announcing his decision. Well Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri
emphasised on an amicable departure from the NA with no
grievances or ill feeling on his part or the NA. The reason for
leaving the alliance according to Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri was the
failure of the General and European councils of the party to
ratify the decision of the CWC on joining the National Alliance.
The reasons being that the party considered the role given to
PAT in the alliance, was not consistent to its size and
political standing, especially with the major positions of
president and general secretary eluding PAT. The benefit to be
gained by PAT by joining such an alliance was unclear to many.
Although Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri insisted the sole reason on leaving
the NA was due his party's willingness to do so, he di! d shed
light on the fact that the promises made to him on how the NA
was to develop did not materialise. The specific promises he
referred to in his press conference were regarding the alliance
increasing in number to over a dozen, with confused messages
being passed to him regarding the formation of the NA
leadership.
Well from a neutral point of view it seems as though the NA never
made any inroads in getting itself established or ready to fight the
general election. There were many suspicions and questions flying
around about the NA's peculiar formation and stature. The PML(Q) was
also tipped to join the NA at a later stage but that also never
happened and always looked unlikely. It is now clear that PML(Q)
will be taking a solo flight as it has made it clear that it will
not be joining any Grand National Alliance nor joining hands with
any other party. Baring in mind that both the PML(Q) and NA were
allegedly formed and are supported by the government, it raises t!
he question of why the government has formed two different entities
which are apparently both fully supportive of the government.
Especially when they will not be merging to form a Grand National
Alliance. There are several proposed theories on the reasons behind
the formation of the NA existent in various political circles.
One of them is that the aim of the NA was to box in various
parties so that they could be curtailed and bound, making the way
clear for the PML (Q). Well, as the NA is an election alliance,
member parties lose their independence to a great degree as they are
now bound by the rules and regulations set down by the NA. A prime
example of this is the dissatisfaction of the Pakistan Awami Tehreek
(PAT) and consequently its departure from the NA. Thus, PAT's open
declaration that the NA was trying to limit its role supports the
apparent claim that the NA was formed to deliberately curtail member
parties.
Regarding the PML(Q), with all member part! ies of the NA ceasing
to have independent roles and having to adhere to NA policy which,
apparently was not to oppose the PML(Q) then the claim that the NA
was clearing the way for the PML(Q) would be justified.
Another proposed theory on the formation of the NA is that it was
merely created to give Farooq Laghari a suitable platform to promote
himself as an able politician as his Millat Party is not a large
enough party to achieve such a purpose. Well, although Ghulam
Mustafa Jatoi is the president of the NA it is clear to all that he
was given the slot due to the inability of member parties to agree
on any one else, or as PAT would put it, he wasforcefully given the
slot to deprive PAT from gaining the post. Well there have been
statements of Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri in the press over the past couple of
weeks saying that his party will not be allowed to be used as a step
ladder by anyone. May be these were clear hints that he was aware of
this hidden strategy of using memb! er parties to promote Farooq
Laghari placing him in a position to be inducted into the next
government.
Another theory is that the government is working on a
multidimensional plan with many contingency measures being taken
into consideration. As part of this plan it is said that Imran
Khan's Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has been deliberately kept out of the
NA so that the government can turn to it if need be as a contingency
measure.
Well the departure of PAT from the NA has been a visible setback
for the government as Maj. Gen. Ihtishaam Zameer, chief of the
political wing of the ISI, has been sacked primarily due to the
departure of PAT from the NA and the failure of the PML to unite,
which were both government sponsored projects. Such a major step by
the government proves that the above mentioned theories may have
truth in them. The sudden departure of Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi to
London has been as questionable as his arrival. He probably thought
the NA has now lost any impotence it had, thus, apparently
abandoning it.
Well obviously PAT thought long and hard on leaving the NA but
finally took the decision believing it to be in its best interest.
The options available to PAT on its future course of action seem to
be three-fold. The most viable and attractive option would be to
form an election alliance with the PML(Q) as was indicated by Dr
Qadri in his press conference! . Well both parties did announce an
election alliance following the local elections but nothing
productive has materialised mainly due to PAT joining the NA, as
stated by PML(Q) sources. Well it is clear that the PML(Q) is the
government’s first choice especially after the shocking revelations
of senior government officials instructing Nazims to fully
participate in the PML(Q) election campaign. The formation of such
an alliance would all in all depend on the willingness of the PML(Q)
but as it is widely perceived in the public, the PML(Q) is the
governments puppet, thus depriving it from their support. In order
to ensure its victory in the election, the PML(Q) will need to form
such election alliances. PAT seems to be a favorable option as it
claims to have a decisive vote bank. The second option available to
PAT would be to form an election alliance with opposition parties.
Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri has repeatedly said that he will prefer to be in
the opposition rather than a gove! rnment, which is not giving PAT
its due share in power. Currently the opposition seems to be
leaderless as leaders of both the PML(N) and PPP are in self exile.
Thus, PPP and PML(N) workers and supporters desperately need a
leader who can lead them to success in the October elections. So the
proposition of leading the opposition is a tempting one for Dr
Tahir-ul-Qadri, as everyone is aware of the progress of the Pakistan
Awami Itihad (PAI) under the leadership of Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri. The
third clear option available for PAT is to take a solo flight,
making seat adjustments in every constituency according to the local
political scenario. The recent co-operation between Baigum Abida
Hussain and Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri in their respective seats is clear
evidence of this strategy already being in operation. It seems as
though such co-operation and seat adjustments will play a major role
in the coming elections especially for PAT.
Whether PAT has gained or not on leaving the NA, t! he government
on the other hand will be counting its losses as PAT's departure
from the NA concludes the government's failure with regards to the
NA. On the other handgovernment plans regarding PML(Q) and the
unification of the PML have all but failed. Both of these
developments have raised serious talk within government circles that
the elections will be postponed by a couple of months, as the
government's plans in maneuvering its desired entities into power
have suffered severe setbacks. The course which PAT decides to take
will clear the air of uncertainty and confusion regarding the
elections and the post election setup. Time will judge whether PAT's
departure and the consequent failure of the NA, is in fact 'another
nail in the government's coffin'.
