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'Who won in Al Aqsa Intifada?'
by Daoud Kuttab
Much has been said of late as to the reason for the internal
Palestinian conflict, especially the struggle between Yasser Arafat
and his Premier Mahmoud Abbas. While personality issues should not be
discounted in any political struggle, one has to look much deeper in
order to understand what lies behind this conflict.
It erupted as a result of different readings of the international and
Arab political map and the realities of Palestinian life. I believe
that if they felt positive, clement international support for their
cause, Palestinian leaders would be emboldened to adopt a more
stubborn negotiating position, while weaker international support
would lead to a much more flexible negotiating position. The same
applies to how one reads the Palestinian public's exhaustion factor.
These issues reflect on the abilities of Palestinian negotiators to
make demands regarding day-to-day issues, like the release of
prisoners, checkpoints and improving lives of Palestinians.
In these areas, there are definitely some major differences between
the views of the Palestinian president and the prime minister.
Normally such differences can be easily justified and explained based
on their differing positions. A president should be having larger,
long-term vision, while the prime minister must deal with current day
political issues and pressures. Politics as the art of the possible
would apply more to the prime minister's portfolio than to that of
the president.
But in the current context, a much more troublesome difference seems
to be behind the internal conflict. Roughly speaking, it has to do
with the way the two leaders evaluate where the Palestinian issue is
in terms of local and international circles. In this context, one has
to answer a simple question: Who has emerged as the victor in Al Aqsa
Intifada? While there might be no black and white answer to this
question, attempting to answer it can be of extreme help in deciding
a negotiating strategy and better understanding the dilemma facing
Abu Mazen.
A number of Abu Mazen's hardline opponents within the Fateh Central
Committee are claiming that the prime minister is a defeated leader.
They note his criticism of the militarisation of the Intifada as
proof that he had given up on the Palestinian uprising even before
the hudna was formally declared. Abu Mazen's supporters reject these
accusations, noting that criticising him was simply against the form
that the Intifada has taken (the military one), which has weakened
rather than strengthened the Palestinian position in the world and
vis-à-vis Israel.
They insist that Abu Mazen's negotiating posture reflects a realistic
approach rather than the pie-in-the-sky approach which has repeatedly
proved to be detrimental to Palestinian aspirations. They point to
the way Palestinians have always made unattainable demands based on a
mistaken reading of the political balance of forces and then, after
some time, what was rejected became a new demand, but again the
balance of forces would be different and therefore the new demand
would not be reached.
Back to the question of the winners and losers of the Intifada. There
is no doubt that Palestinians were badly bruised during the past two
and a half years. The Palestinian economy is in ruins, the
infrastructure in shambles and people's faith in the leadership and
in the eventuality of peace has been dealt a bad blow. The hard work
of erasing the terrorism image of the 70s has been wasted as that
image has returned to haunt the Palestinians. And the Israelis have
not ended their occupation of Palestinian lands.
But for better or worse, the Palestinians have not surrendered, they
have not thrown in the towel, and despite hurting all over, they
remain standing.
Israelis are also bruised, their economy is also hurt (not as much as
the Palestinians') and their confidence in peace is still rather low.
The powerful Israeli military machine has not won the battle on the
ground, as Israeli soldiers, settlers and civilians continued to be
killed and injured. While Israel can't claim to have won the battle,
it has not lost it either. Some would call the result a draw.
To be honest I would say that the Palestinians have lost the latest
round in points rather than through a knockout, which means that they
still have a chance to regroup themselves. This means that national
unity must be preserved at all costs. Palestinians must be careful
not to fall in the trap of a civil war or a leadership struggle and,
at the same time, try to agree on an honest evaluation of what is
possible in the current political landscape.
Daoud Kuttab is a Palestinian journalist from Jerusalem. He is the
director
of the Institute of Modern Media at Al Quds University which owns and
runs
Al Quds Educational Television. In May 2001, Mr. Kuttab received the
International Press Institute's award as one of fifty press freedom
heroes
in the last fifty years. He is a regular contributor to
Media Monitors Network (MMN).
Source:
by courtesy & © 2003 Daoud Kuttab & Arabic Media Internet Network (AMIN)
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