The Substance and the Symbolism of the F-16s
Cambridge - Of the many bilateral and international issues that will
come up for discussion during the June 24 Musharraf-Bush summit for Pakistan
the sale of F-16s will be a key issue. While economic support speculated in
the range of few billion dollars will be welcomed by the Pakistani
establishment and the people who believe that in the post 9/11 period
‘Islamabad sold its cooperation cheap’, it is the question of the sale of
the F-16s that will be followed most intently.
After the former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was able to extract back Soya
beans plus cash instead of delivery of the 28 F-16s , General Parvez
Musharraf has consistently been asking the Bush administration to sell F-16s
to Pakistan. Pakistan paid for 28 of the aircraft in a deal first negotiated
in the late 1980s. Despite having already purchased them, the US blocked
their release in 1991 when Pakistan could not certify that it had no nuclear
programme. Widely referred toa s “highway robbery” by the US administration
which neither repaid the cash it received for the planes nor delivered the
planes, has clearly conveyed the extent to which US can prove dependable
partners for Pakistan.
Interestingly it is on the eve of Musharraf’s arrival in the US stories on
the US decision to sell F-16s are being flashed across the print media. Not
surprisingly in Delhi, the US and in Islamabad too Among the US publications
the US-based Defence and Foreign Affairs journal reported that “Washington
would not only now release the jets, but would hand Pakistan the new
Lockheed Martin version.” American officials in Islamabad have refuted
these stories as mere “fabrications.” If it is a mere “fabrication” it could
be a propaganda ploy by a Delhi or Washington-based Indian lobby to pre-empt
any substantive discussion on the sale of F-16s. Instead push the Bush
administration in the denial mode. Alternatively this “fabrication” could
have been fed by a Pakistani source as a ‘suggestive’ news story. Such media
games are common occurrences where Pakistani and Indian interests are viewed
by the two governments as clashing.
Whatever the decision on the sale of F-16s there is no doubt that the issue
of the US sale of F-16s to Pakistan has become a symbol of the limits and
expectations of the Pakistan-US relationship which is otherwise
multidimensional. Evidently Washington’s position on 'to sell or not to
sell' the F-16s to Pakistan will also convey the extent of how much 'meat'
there is in Pakistan-US relations from the US perspective. In Islamabad it
is seen as a test case of whether the Pak-US relationship is a strategic
one.
The decision to sell F-16s will demonstrate the degree of trust US has in
the current Pakistani government as reliable allies. In case the sale is not
cleared and Delhi gets in addition to the Phalcon AWACS, also the Arrows
cleared, the growing US-Indian strategic ties will be contrasted with United
States limited tactical and issue-based relations with Pakistan.
Hence the sale of F-16s will only help maintain an effectiveness-based and
not quantity-based military balance in the two nuclear-armed antagonistic
neighbors. The refusal to sell directly or through third party the F-16s
would therefore be demonstrative of United States consideration of Indian
concerns. The Indian government has always effectively opposed any major
military sales to Pakistan.
In November 2001 Pakistan’s request for clearance to purchase F-16s. Then
Lee Feinstein, a State Department official in the Clinton administration who
worked on South Asia policy had explained that "The United States has a new
role in South Asia, and that is as a kind of guarantor of stability for
Pakistan. At the same time, it wants to deepen relationship with India. The
trick will be whether officials in all three capitals can can accommodate
this." Then the transfer of F-16 aircrafts was seen as upsetting a “delicate
balance” both in Pakistan-India military build-up and in the emerging troika
Pakistan-India and US relations.; a view which is not shared by the
Pakistani national security community of policymakers, media and analysts.
Meanwhile in Pakistan the memory of US refusal to sell the Airborne Warning
And Control System (AWACS) at the height of ‘strategic cooperation’ in the
anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan, is still fresh. According to an analyst “US
has always limited its cooperation with Pakistan, among other factors, by
also India’s concerns.” At the peak of the Afghan war with deep military
cooperation and no issues of so-called "fundamentalism" and terrorism" US
had refused to sell AWACS to Pakistan in the mid eighties. Differences have
always existed between the US State department and the Defence Department
on the extent to which strategic cooperation with Pakistan possible. That
difference still continues. Only the current Secretary of defence Donald
Rumsfeld is known to bull doze his own way through, overriding concerns of
the State Department. However there is no indication that Rumsfeld will push
for the controversial sale during Musharraf’s forthcoming visit..
Pakistan’s concerns regarding the militarization of the region continue to
increase. In its region the arms bazaar is at its busiest. Buying and
selling are at its peak. The latest Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute (SIPRI) report reports that peak. The value of Russian arms
exports, on the rise since 1999, increased by more than $1 billion to $4.8
billion last year. Accounting for 36 percent of global deliveries, Russia
replaced the United States as the world's largest supplier of arms to other
countries. According to the SIPRI report 2003 India’s arms imports increased
72 percent in 2002, making it the second largest buyer of arms from abroad.
China became the largest arms importer in 2002. Similarly arms imports by
Pakistan also grew considerably last year, SIPRI said.
Arms race continues in South Asia as both continue to develop missile s and
produce fissile material. Both also have a nuclear arsenal whose size
estimates remain speculative. However Pakistan, “the poorer of the two, was
the underdog measured by both conventional and nuclear arms “ the SIPRI
Report maintained. With no signs of sustained peace efforts within South
Asia, the unresolved Kashmir problems, the development and possible
deployment of nuclear weapons by India are factors that will contribute to
the insecurity dilemma of Pakistan.
The Two Contexts of A Growing Relationship
The Camp David meeting between President General Parvez
Musharraf and President George Bush will serve as yet another building block
in a growing Pakistan-US relationship Both will re-engage, fourth time since
9/11 to promote what the two heads of state view as their country’s national
interest it would be useful to recognize the two different contexts which
define this old though troubled relationship; the Pakistani context and the
American context. These two contexts also determine what each can
realistically ‘deliver’ for the other.
The Pakistani context from which the relationship flows is a highly engaged
and politicized one. Given the historical experiences of Pakistan’s
relationship from the fifties onwards, a pot-pourri of expectations,
disappointments, deep engagement , sanctions, distrust and recriminations,
it is a relationship which evokes extreme sentiments. Not least because of a
supranational muslim consciousness combined with active State engagement
with muslim countries within South, South West and Central Asia.
United States is therefore not viewed only with reference to how it delivers
or not on the bilateral front but also what positions it takes on muslim
causes, Palestine being the primary one. Interestingly along with
Pakistan-India it is the United States-Pakistan relations that are minutely
examined by the national security community, the media and the average
Pakistani. This relationship remains therefore actively susceptible to the
compulsions and criticisms of the overlapping zones of the civilian and
military establishments, the political governments, the media and the
public. Yet despite all the disappointments it is a relationship that the
establishment and all governments have actively sought to promote and the
public has generally been cynical about.
Hence in Pakistan it is a virtually schizophrenic compulsion that defines
the context; the compulsion both to engage and top not engage. The official
policy community of Pakistan however remains clear about the abiding
significance of remaining on the ‘right side’ of the United States. Even if
the officials feel ‘short-changed’ by the United States for what they have
‘delivered’ to the United States there is a clear consensus on the economic
, military and political advantages of this bilateral relations. Although
within the public context the economic benefits from this relationship
remain buried under the criticisms of United States political policies on
issues like Kashmir and Palestine. And now on Iraq and on Iran too.
While the establishment remains mindful of the greater importance that the
United ascribes to Pakistan’s troublesome neighbor India, it also argues
that Pakistan has remained ‘on course’ where its own critical interests have
collided with US policy interests. Critical interests would include the
nuclear program, its position on the Kashmir dispute, opposition to
unilateralist actions and pre-emptive strikes against sovereign states would
be.
Against the backdrop of this context Pakistani governments will continue to
extract whatever advantages they can from its relationship with the United
States. Pakistan meanwhile continues to ‘deliver’ to the US whatever it can
in US’s war on terrorism, the occasionally ambiguous and nebulous
‘adversary’, in the military and political areas. Ultimately to whatever
degree and in whatever ways Pakistan supports US anti-terrorism agenda,
Pakistani establishment is alone responsible for the decisions it takes in
this sphere. As it should be for the decisions it took regarding Pakistan-US
cooperation in the fifties and in the eighties. The cost-benefit
calculations have to be done in Islamabad. The more consciously and
competently they are done keeping national and not institutional or
individual interest in mind , the better it is for Pakistan. Pakistani
policy makers have to take responsibility for the outcome of this phase of
engagement with the US. The time for close and clear examination is now.
Later endless recriminations are of little consequence.
Meanwhile the US context from which the compulsion to engage and deliver on
the Pakistan front flows, is a straight forward one. It is in the nature of
the United States functioning democracy that all its institutions are geared
towards promoting what the US establishment determines to be its national
interest. The Administration, the elected houses and the media all join
hands or at least all provide the checks and balances that generally keep
the US government functioning along prescribed lines. Examples of
presidential preferences translating into operational policies are indeed
limited. If the establishment and the political policy is to support Isreal
it is difficult to get out of line.
Similarly if Pakistan must deliver on counter-terrorism along with a
domestic dimension, on LOC , on India, on democracy and on proliferation
there will be limits to how much an administration can go out of line on
this policy. If counter-terrorism is the major consideration then the push
for democracy can become weak. It will neither disappear and nor will it not
return when the ‘job is done’ on counter-terrorism. Such is the US setup. It
expects its bilateral partners, to whom it does dole out concrete
advantages, to ‘deliver’ regularly. For example the multi-billion package
that will be announced at the Camp David Musharraf-Bush summit it will
require annual clearance from the Congress. The option therefore for the US
to pull out of an arrangement with a ‘non-performing’ bilateral partner will
always be there.
The US set-up works professionally through its institutions. Unlike Pakistan
personalities alone cannot determine policies. So the first name basis and
back slapping evenings wining and dining with senior officials cannot
translate into policy advantages. That’s a different ball game. Strict and
serious not susceptible to individual or institutional proclivities. Old
timers especially from Gulf countries serving in Washington maintain that
unless their countries do not ‘deliver’ as and when the US wants old actions
of the ‘faithful’ count for naught. Such is the stringent demand from those
who have engaged in a relationship with the US. This is how this militarily
and economically strong power functions. After all even when the Europeans
did not deliver on the Iraq war sober and serious-minded Americans are known
to have attacked even ‘french fries’…such was the anger against the French.
Consequently Pakistani policy-makers must remain mindful of this context as
they engage further in a relationship which has its clear advantages for
Pakistan. Correct cost-benefit calculations based on realistic expectations
is essential.
Complaints, Responses, Terrorism and Responsibilities
The Bush Administration’s expected response to Pakistan’s
complaint of being ‘short-changed’ for its post 9/11 cooperation would be a
listing of the US Administration-backed economic ‘advantages accrued to
Pakistan from the various international finance regimes. Washington takes
credit for the 12 billion dollar debt rescheduling which subsequently led
the bilateral level rescheduling with specific Paris Club member countries.
In Pakistan analysts too credit both Ossama Bin Ladin and Shaukat Aziz for
Pakistan’s much improved macro-economic picture ! Bilaterally on the US
front after the write-off from the $ 3 billion debt owed by Pakistan, now
only 1.8 billion is pending. To repay this debt Pakistan has to return 15
million dollars. However it is unlikely that Pakistan’s demand of getting
the entire 1.8 billion written off will be met during this summit. US argues
that instead of writing off this debt which would only accrue 15million
dollar annual savings to Pakistan, only partial write-off will be combined
with a major US investment in the social sector. For Pakistan however this
formula denies Pakistan cash availability of 15 million dollars to be
utilized for other purposes.
However important process-move on the important issue of trade is expected
to be finalized during the May 24 summit. The Trade and Investment Framework
Agreement (TIFA) will be signed. That will be the first step towards a
Pakistan-US free trade agreement (FTA). Sri Lanka is the other South Asian
country with which TIFA has been signed. When signed a FTA would provide
Pakistani products preferred access to the US market. The significance of
TIFA however is only that it opens an intensive negotiations track for US
and Pakistan on ways to expedite agreement on FTA. Most of the pre-requisite
actions on factors like the international property rights and, on
procurements etc need to be taken by the Pakistan.
Meanwhile Washington’s emphasis on social sector support flows also from its
belief that higher social spending to be a long term counter-terrorism
measure insofar as lack of education and employment contribute to so-called
“terrorism.” This belief may only partially be true. Yet for Washington
focus on this secondary issue rather than on the primary counter-terrorism
issue that of political roots of terrorism, is politically ‘convenient.’ If
Washington concedes on the primary issue Washington would have take
responsibility, given its acts of commission and omission, for contributing
to the perpetuation of the most volatile unresolved conflicts of Palestine
and Kashmir.
A central question on the home front for any Pakistani government
cooperating with the US would be whether Pakistan would completely ‘buy
into’ a US counter-terrorism policy. At present US’s counter-terrorism
policy is one that is notorious among majority of the Muslims and even large
sections of opinion-making Europeans for its anti-muslim bias.
For Pakistan a strategically and morally correct policy on counter-terrorism
would be to continue with its Kashmir and Palestine policy which takes steps
for the political resolution of these issues, continue to link the beginning
of a sincere political dialogue aimed at a principled resolution of the
Palestinian and Kashmiri dispute to state repression to the sustained end of
violence in these areas. Meanwhile in upholding rule of law, uniformly not
selectively, nationally and internationally it must cooperate with
international counter –terrorism measures.
Such a counter-terrorism policy, which Pakistan largely follows, cannot
support unilateralism, its national security doctrine of pre-emptive strike,
its selective and even lie based policy on Weapons of Mass
Destruction.(WMD), its policy of threats than of engagement on questions
like Iran’s nuclear program, its military occupation of Iraq fast descending
into a counter-insurgency operation. Pakistan cannot afford a simplistic
view of and decision on any of these issues which directly undermine all
objective legal and moral basis required for consensus-based multi-lateral
international system. Indeed given the precedents that these US policies set
for inter-state relations they also directly undermine positions that
Pakistan must uphold for its own national security.
While many of these issues have been thrown up as a consequence of United
States post 9/11 policy the Pakistani complain of being “short-changed” by
the US has been as old as the relationship itself. Significantly beyond the
US response to there is a Pakistan-specific dimension to this issue. After
all the bargaining moment for Pakistan in the case of 9/11 cooperation was
before making its commitment to the US. Should a very influential Pakistani
general then visiting the US have instantly handed a blank check of
Pakistani support to Under Secretary of State Armitage within 24 hours of
9/11? The answer to this question will provide a realistic response to who
should take the responsibility for Pakistan being ‘short-changed’, indeed if
we believe we have been short-changed ? After all none other than the guru
of US diplomacy Henry Kissinger expressed shock to his friend Pakistan’s
former Foreign Minister Sahibzada Yaqub Ali Khan over Pakistan’s
leadership’s failure in the seventies to ask for quid pro quo for
facilitating the ‘China opening.’ Having spent reportedly two entire days
figuring out what the Pakistanis would demand as quid pro quo the Nixon
Administration could not believe their luck when the Pakistanis came blank
on a quid pro quo !
That fundamental requirement of hard bargaining at an opportune moment is
possible only through competently led inter-institutional thinking; one so
often missing in Pakistan’s personalized or group rule. Fortunately
inter-institutional strategizing was evident through the Iraq crisis. The
outcome has been a correct Iraq policy. Over the crucial question of sending
Pakistani troops to Iraq the same inter-institutional decision-making will
be required.
Acrimony along with other factors has been a sustained if not dominant
element in Pakistan-US relations from the fifties onwards. Even at the ‘high
point’ of cooperation acrimony and distrust has continued. The only way in
which Pak-US relations will avoid bitterness as the moves forward in this
relationship are defined jointly by the two countries factoring in their
respective national and international goals. As the Bush administration
focuses on its own requirements of the post 9/11 engagement with Pakistan ,
Pakistan too must candidly and competently focus on its own clearly worked
out national interests.
Pakistan-US Summit Special 4
The Six Key Political Issues
There are six key policy issues of bilateral and international significance
which are likely to be discussed during General Parvez Musharraf’s Camp
David and Washington meetings. These discussions will not necessarily yield
new moves by either or both countries on all of these six issue issues.
Primarily future policy directions of both countries would be decided. In
some cases new decisions may also be made. (Interestingly though on most of
these issues it is the United States’ expectation that Pakistan would be
expected to respond to.)
One is the cooperation over Afghanistan. A reassertion of Pakistan’s
commitment to supporting US objectives in Afghanistan will be sought and
gotten by Bush and his team. Musharraf will reiterate Pakistan’s commitments
and its view on the political way forward. In the period following 9/11, led
by the Pakistan army and in coordination with US agencies , Pakistan began a
70,000 personnel strong security and development operation in Pakistan’s
tribal agencies This operation along the Afghan border has led to
unprecedented close institutional interaction between the agencies of the
two countries. These include FBI, CIA and CENTCOM , Joint Chief of Staff
Committee , ISI, GHQ and the IB. The Technical Monitoring Cell (TMC) located
in the GHQ has Pakistani army and CENTCOM representatives meets daily. These
agencies have pooled their human and technological resources to continuously
mount anti-a-Qaeda and anti-taleban operations.
The political challenges in Afghanistan also continue to multiply. On
Afghanistan Pakistan’s U –turn on the talibaan was accompanied by its
publicly stated concerns after the Bonn Agreement that the near no
representation of the Pushtuns would prevent stabilization of the Karzai
regime. Islamabad’s Afghan policy includes support of the Karzai regime, of
the US troops in Afghanistan and its continuous yet strictly political
engagement with Afghan Pushtuns including sections of the talibaans.
Reportedly the US has recently sought Islamabad’s intervention to help
Karzai open dialogue with the Pushtun ulema and some “moderate talibaan.”
Difficulty in handling the situation as election period nears will generate
pressure and some blame game. However the countries aim to evolve an
appropriate responses to this through the recently set up Trilateral
Commission on Afghanistan which has Pakistan, US and Afghan representation.
Significantly the structure
The scale and spread of interaction between the defence and intelligence
agencies of the two countries has been unprecedented .The structure of the
post 9/11 relationship with the US therefore primarily involves these
agencies. Structures like the Hence the military provides the major building
blocks of the post 9/11 architecture of this bilateral relationship.
The second issue will be the Kashmir issue. On this a reiteration of
Pakistan’s commitment to controlling cross-LOC infiltration will be sought.
Musharraf will call for an Indian response to Pakistan clamping down on the
infiltration. Beginning with his Geo television interview in which he
conceded that there could be 10 to 12 solutions to Kashmir, advocated
Kashmiri representation in talks over Kashmir and called for conflict
resolution Musharraf has already stated Pakistan’s policy. The ball is in
India’s court he will say. Its policy of denial or threats will not work.
Instant solutions too are not available. Musharraf, like the former Prime
Ministers, advocates initiating dialogue to explore viable solutions to the
dispute. He maintains infiltration across the LOC can only be controlled for
a specific period. Permanent and complete end to cross-LOC infiltration will
be possible only if India sincerely enter into negotiations over Kashmir.
Meanwhile all Washington seeks is aPakistan-Indian dialogue over Kashmir.
It has no solution to offer. Only US think-tanks have mostly promoted the
Delhi solution to the dispute; a permanent division of Kashmir along the
LOC. The US Administration has no road map for a Kashmir solution, it does
however have a road map on how India and Pakistan must engage. Musharraf
will be ‘advised’ by the Americans to refrain from controversial statements
regarding Kargil , future conflicts etc reportedly said in his NDTV. This
verbal battling by both sides , through the airwaves and print media will be
discouraged.
Musharraf must raise with his American counterpart the viability of the 1899
Hague Convention for the Pacific Settlement of International Disputes as a
legal avenue for resolving the dispute. Both India and Pakistan are parties
to the Convention. Article 8 establishes a procedure for special mediation.
The U.S. government joined by others must also invoke the requirement of
Article 33(1) of the United Nations Charter providing that the two parties
to the dispute over Kashmir “shall first of all, seek a solution by
negotiation, inquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial
settlement, resort to regional agencies or arrangements, or other peaceful
means of their own choice.” For fear of US rejection Pakistan must not fail
to raise this legitimate, credible and peaceful way forward on Kashmir.
Third will be the nuclear issue. Pressure on Pakistan on this issue is
exerted through media and think-tanks. Leaked stories and near
recommendations of think-tanks flag Pakistan as a nuclear proliferator and
an irresponsible nuclear state. There is however an acceptance, at least at
this ‘high point ‘of counter-terrorism cooperation, within a section of
the US administration of the nuclear program being Pakistan’s genuine
security requirement. Reportedly a few weeks ago an influential New
York-based think tank attempted to produce a report calling for dismantling
of Pakistan’s nuclear program. That move was aborted by some members of the
Bush administration and the US national security community who believed that
such a move would undermine bilateral cooperation over the anti-terrorism
drive, that it would push Pakistan in the lap of ‘extremism’ and a
heightened anti-Americanism would destablize the Musharraf government.
Musharraf will stress Pakistan’s track record of no export of nuclear
technology to even friendly muslim countries including Iran and Pakistan’s
own C3 system. Nuclear roll-back is no option for Pakistan. Infact the
development of its nuclear program will continue. India’s development of
nuclear tipped missiles and offensive nuclear doctrine based on triad will
prevent Pakistan from capping its program at the present level. A roll-back
is therefore a complete impossibility. Infact the development and the
survival of Pakistan’s defence-related nuclear program remains an abiding
pillar of Pakistan’s national security. On this issue there exists a
national consensus cutting across political, military and civilian
establishment.
Fourth will be the question of Pakistan military being dispatched to Iraq.
On Iraq Pakistan’s chose a principled yet non-combative path. While
unambiguously ruling out support for US military invasion on Iraq in the
Pakistani parliament the Musharraf-Jamali government explained why another
policy option could not be exercized. Pakistan balanced its policy of
opposing a pre-emptive strike against Iraq, of supporting continuation of
Hans Blix’s Weapons Inspection and of actively Musharraf personally
exploring with the Saddam government the possibility of Saddam’s ‘peaceful
exit’ from Iraq. Now on the most pressing question of Pakistan supplying
troops to support US forces in what is undoubtedly turning into a
counter-insurgency operation in Iraq the Pakistanis will find it difficult
to oblige the US. Despite the government’s keenness to ‘help’ the US two
problems remain. One the international including muslim consensus is
against sending troops to function under US command. Two Saudi Arabia has
opposed Pakistan’s suggestion to allow forces from the muslim country to go
under OIC command; an idea with which the US agreed. It will be politically
unwise for Pakistan to let its military men become part of a
counter-insurgency operation against the Iraqi people. The Iraqis increasing
view the US troops as an occupation force.
Five is the signing of a bilateral agreement invoking article 98(2) of the
Rome Statute
Which allows countries to sign bilateral treaties for a reciprocal
arrangement for handing over war criminals belonging to either countries to
each other and not to ICC. Many US legal experts argue that US has
“distorted” this clause which was not meant to cover future agreements but
was intended to respect existing US Status of Forces Agreements (SOFA's) and
existing obligations under international law. Par 98 (2) was added to cover
existing obligations under international agreements. SOFA's deal with
ordinary crimes by soldiers committed in foreign countries which are happy
to turn the accused back to their own nation for trial. However experts
maintain that “Using this loophole, the US began a frantic and determined
effort to coerce as many other states as possible to enter into such
agreements. “ They argue entering into such bilateral agreements will “
provide the US with the unjustified argument that 98(2) offers immunity from
transfer to the ICC. But that would enable the US to thwart the clear
obligations of member states to cooperate with requests for the transfer of
suspects to the ICC, and would defeat the fundamental purpose of the ICC to
avoid immunity for suspected criminals. “ However despite this criticism
notwithstanding numerous countries including India, Bangla Desh, Sri Lanka
and Afghanistan have signed this bilateral agreement with the US. Given
Pakistan’s current level of cooperation the government may agree to sign
this agreement. In principle it will be a reciprocal agreement but in
practice US is unlikely to hand over a Pakistani war criminal to Pakistan.
Instead it would try him under US law. Guantanamo Bay adequately
illustrates this fact. Only Pakistan will be obliged to hand over US war
criminals to the US. As has always been the case; handing over of Aimal
Kansi illustrated this fact. However the possibility of Pakistan signing
this agreement may explain the presence of the Establishment ‘s lawyer
Sharif ud Din Peerzada’s presence in the very small presidential delegation.
Finally the sixth issue will relate to Pakistan’s domestic politics. The
Bush administration has a somewhat of a contradictory expectation from
Musharraf. Viewing Pakistan’s domestic politics from US’s national security
perspective they may look forward to political engineering insofar as it
divides and destructs the MMA. And as an extension of that requirement would
be the need to have Musharraf work out a deal with the two mainstream
political parties. This is what Musharraf has been disinclined to do. He
would put forth his usual arguments of the need to clean up Pakistani
politics. Musharraf is unrelenting on the issue of complete democracy versus
guided democracy. Few within and outside doubt that he has a role to play ,
they would also support him but are likely to stress upon the need to be
more accommodating towards the other two mainstream parties too.
On a broader note as the Bush Administration faces unprecedented popular
resentment in the muslim and the European world over its many arbitrary,
illegal and unilateral South-West Asian policies, there is an expectation of
‘ideological support’ from Musharraf. Clearly General Musharraf cannot
endorse US policies. His comments on recognition of Israel were rapidly
clarified by his close friend and National Security Advisor Tariq Aziz.
“Pakistan will be the last muslim country to rrecognize Israel,” he told
après conference in Lahore.
Musharraf will however yet again advocate moderate Islam as opposed to
extremist Islam. He will articulate what is Pakistan’s own requirement and
what the Americans want to hear . Yet the sooner the US understands that
religious beliefs of those who take to violence as a means of promoting
causes is secondary. It is the unresolved political disputes that are
primary. Musharraf’s message of moderate Islam is well –received against the
back drop of internal compulsions, not least of all the intolerance and
internal strife preached by originally State-sponsored groups, had led
Nawaz Sharif, Shahbaz Sharif and subsequently Musharraf to find ways to
‘moderate’ these groups. However the legitimacy of the message of moderation
is based on it being a statement of intent signaling reformation of the
State. Not as a message through which to tackle political opponents like the
MMA. While there can be differences within Pakistan on MMA’s interpretation
of Islam, there is no denying their democratic legitimacy.
Nasim Zehra is a Fellow at
the Harvard University - Asia Center.
She contributed above article to Media Monitors Network (MMN) from Massachusetts, USA.
Source:
by courtesy & ©
2003