by Shlomo Gazit
The Oslo Declaration of Principles (DOP) was signed more than eight
years ago. About three years ago a bilateral Israeli-Palestinian
permanent
agreement was supposed to take effect. We are as far away from such an
agreement today as we were nearly six years ago, in February-March
1996, when the process came to a halt following a wave of terrorist
attacks. All attempts made since then to get negotiations back on track
and renew the Oslo process have collapsed. Six years appear to
constitute
a sufficient period of time to recognize that we have failed and to
search
for alternative approaches.
The first suitable step is soul searching: what was accomplished and
what
was not accomplished through the Oslo process?
On the positive side, the Oslo DOP was revolutionary. After more than
70 years of zero sum confrontation between the two sides, the two
national movements, Zionist and Palestinian, recognized and accepted
one another's right to exist as an independent national unit. The
Palestinian national leadership established itself among its people,
within
the borders of the future Palestinian state. From Israel's standpoint,
the
government ceased bearing political and administrative responsibility
for
the fate of three million Palestinian residents of the West Bank and
Gaza
Strip, thus bringing to an end 30 years of imposed military rule.
On the negative side, the drafters of the agreement made one huge
mistake; they tried to put the cart before the horse. The DOP ushered in
a
process of territorial transfers that pinned hopes on confidence
building
measures by both sides; these in turn were intended to prepare public
opinion prior to initiating final status negotiations. Herein lies the
catch:
it quickly (and predictably) became evident that a reverse process had
commenced. Both sides began feverishly creating new and negative facts
on the ground that would enable them to improve positions in
anticipation of the final dispensation of each final status issue.
The Al-Aqsa Intifada began 14 months ago. Throughout this time we have
witnessed repeated mediation attempts intended to bring about a
ceasefire and to facilitate renewal of negotiations. By any standard, 14
months are enough time to conclude that there is no chance for such an
initiative to succeed. On the contrary, the violent, persistent and
painful
struggle has gradually hardened public opinion, to the point where both
sides are less and less ready to end the violence without knowing in
advance what the political payoff is.
Historical experience teaches us that in nearly all armed conflicts it
is
not the ceasefire that precedes negotiations but, to the contrary, it is
political negotiations and the agreement they produce that facilitate
and
generate a ceasefire. Indeed, both sides in such a violent conflict take
into account that negotiations and a political agreement will clearly
express the balance of forces in their armed conflict.
Isn't it time we learned from the experience of others? Does it still
make
sense to adhere stubbornly to a failed process and repeatedly renew a
sterile effort focused entirely on achieving a ceasefire prior to
negotiating? It would be better for all three parties--Israel, the
Palestinians and the US--to abandon the Tenet and Mitchell plans once
and for all, and to open negotiations even as the violence and armed
struggle continue on both sides. Renewing negotiations under these
conditions will create a new situation: at a stroke the ground will be
pulled out from under those terrorists who enjoy the capacity to torpedo
negotiations at any moment by carrying out acts that destroy the "quiet"
demanded as a precondition for negotiating.
Indeed, US integrity in mediation is at stake. Palestinians will measure
the seriousness of the United States position in talks with the US
administration over the nature of its mediation; its understanding of
United Nations Resolutions 242 and 338 and the mechanics of the US
role in the negotiating process.
Such an approach is based not only on practical logic. It also
constitutes
pressure on both parties to accelerate the negotiating process, in the
clear knowledge that if they don't reach agreement and understanding,
then the current impasse will necessarily be solved by decisive military
action between them.
Major General (res.) Shlomo Gazit was Israel's first Coordinator of
Government Operations in the Administered Territories (1967-1974)
and Head of Military Intelligence (1974-1979).
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