Every movement in history has a direction, a quantum, a modus operandi. According to the father of the philosophy of war, Carl von Clausewitz, everything in strategy moves slowly, imperceptibly, subtly, somewhat mysteriously and sometimes invisibly. The greatness of a military commander or statesman lies in assessing these strategic movements.
The US inherited a historical situation in the shape of 9/11. At that time, it was not making history, if we agree that 9/11 was the work of Al-Qaeda for which so far the US has failed to furnish any solid evidence. After 9/11 when the US attacked Afghanistan, key military commanders and US leaders were making history. They had a certain plan in mind. The stated objectives of these plans were the elimination of Al-Qaeda. The unstated objective was the denuclearization of Pakistan.
The US strategic plan followed the following distinct phases:ã
- An initial maneuver occupying Afghanistan in 2001.
- Establishing and consolidating US military bases near the Afghan-Pakistan border. Most prominent being the Khost, Jalalabad, Sharan and Kunar US bases. Some military bases like Dasht-I-Margo in Nimroz and three other bases in Kandahar, Badakhshan and Logar were so secret that their construction was not even advertised. Even in case of sensitive areas the contracts were awarded to the US Government’s loyal Shaw Group Inc. and the CIA’s favorite DynCorp International Inc. Patriotic Afghans trained in the USSR were removed from Afghan Intelligence because they would not agree to be a party to USA’s dirty game in between 2001 and 2007. Similarly, many patriotic Afghan officers trained in USSR were removed from the Afghan military establishment.
- Cultivating various tribes in ethnic groups on the Pakistan Afghan border by awarding them lucrative construction and logistic sub contracts.
- Forcing the Pakistani military to act against the tribes of th Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) , thus, destabilizing Pakistan’s North-West area close to the strategic heartland of Peshawar-Islamabad-Lahore where Pakistan’s political and military nucleus is located.
- Creating a situation where mysterious insurgencies erupted in various parts of Pakistan including FATA, Swat and Balochistan.
- Carrying forward urban terrorism into Punjab through various proxies.
Now it appears that the strategic plan is entering its final stage of launching a strategic coup de grÃ¢ce to Pakistan, which may be assessed as per following:
- US military buildup in Afghanistan and launching of an offensive against Taliban with an aim of pushing them into Pakistan.
- Simultaneously, pressurizing the Pakistan Army into launching an operation in Waziristan. Thus, Pakistan Army gets severely bogged down and hundreds of thousands of refugees enter Pakistan’s NWFP and Balochistan provinces. Infiltrators and fifth columnists is being a heavy promiscuous mixture of this movement.
- Since 2001, the USA has spent a great fortune collecting information on Pakistan’s strategic nuclear assets. It appears that in 2009, it has sufficient data to launch a covert operation.
- The covert nuclear operation could have a civilian and a military part. The civilian part may involve an attack on Pakistan’s non-military nuclear reactors like Chashma and KANUPP. The military covert operation could involve an attack on any of Pakistan’s strategic nuclear groups anywhere in Pakistan. Once this type of attack is done, the US with its NATO lackeys like Britain, France and Germany would go to the UN and maneuver an international resolution demanding denuclearization of Pakistan. The international opinion may be so strong that Pakistan’s government may capitulate.
- Once Pakistan is denuclearized, the US would encourage Pakistan’s Balkanization into a Baloch US satellite, a city state of MQM in Karachi, a Pakhtunistan badly bombed and in tatters and a Punjab stripped of nuclear potential, kicked and bullied by India. A Northern Area republic that is a US lackey, unless, China decides to call the US bluff by occupying the Northern Area.
What is the answer to this:
- An immediate clean break with US/NATO and closing all NATO/US supply lines to Afghanistan.
- Mining and barbed-wiring the Afghan Pakistan Border.
- Allowing the FATA agencies to import goods for Afghanistan duty free and scrapping the old Afghan Transit Trade Accord thus economically boosting the FATA.
- A military alliance with China with a Chinese Naval base at Gwadar.
- A rapprochement with Russia and offering the Russians free port facilities at Gwadar.
- Creation of a maritime province in Gwadar and Lasbela districts insulating these areas from the Baloch Sardars on payroll of US intelligence.
- Creation of a Pashtun Province in the Pashtun districts of Balochistan with Quetta as its capital.
- Canceling all mineral concessions to all European/Australian/American companies in Balochistan and grant all mineral concessions to Chinese companies.
Everything is not inevitable in history. The ablest navigators can defeat the worst sea storms. Pakistan needs strategic and political vision. It may be necessary to have a military government to do all this in case the civilians prove inept.