Why did Osama bin Laden emerge from two years of silence on the eve of American’s closest 2004 elections? Was it just to play a Hallowe’en prank, to stick his tongue out at George Bush and say "Ya, ya, you missed me!" like the media guesses it was?
Or was there some method to his message? Bin Laden has proven a savvy expert at using the World’s media to his advantage.
So why did he wait until just before the evening news just before a weekend when all the usual chatterbox pundits would be away for two days?
Just before his carefully timed video release was another October surprise, an English speaking kook with a towel wrapped around his head to conceal his identity, making big threats of terrorist acts against America just before the Election. Was this an attempt to drive up the color code another notch, to raise the level of fear? And who would this benefit?
The conventional wisdom is that if the talk before our election is about Iraq, Kerry wins. If the talk is focused on Terrorism, then Bush wins. So who was bin Laden voting for?
To understand who bin Laden was campaigning for, look at America’s future from his perspective, and see who Laden does NOT want to be elected our President.
John Kerry has promised he will involve nations around the world, those George Bush alienated so thoroughly, in the War on Terror. Bin Laden’s bunch, as the CIA just recently told us, has transformed from a structured "organization" to a worldwide "Movement". That’s why even we say it doesn’t matter much if we kill him, his franchised Worldwide Hate America Movement would be alive and well, if not more empowered by his martyrdom.
Bush has proven he cannot gather other nations to fight his self promoted War on Terrorism. So this is a plus in bin Laden’s eyes. Kerry says he can, and as the new guy on the block, he most likely will organize a tight, effective world wide noose in many nations around bin Laden’s Movement. This means bin Laden would not have Kerry cornered in Iraq, as he has Bush pinned down, depleting his forces man by man, day by day, drip by drip, with no chance to win the guerrilla war. The longer bin Laden can keep his problems isolated to Iraq deserts, the more assured he is he will win.
Secondly, Kerry is intelligent, and unlike Bush, will draw intelligent people around him. Bush, though savvy, by any measure is not very bright, and had totally NO foreign experience when he took office. He has absolutely no understanding of any culture outside Texas, other than the swaggering imitation Cowboy image that has not worked in our favor anywhere thus far. That’s why our nation is in the general mess internationally that it’s in.
For bin Laden, the Bush Administration’s massive ignorance about Islam and what drives al-Qaeda has worked greatly to his advantage. Bush cannot imagine how to win the hearts and minds of Iraqis, other than promise them "democracy". He will have to continue blowing up a major portion of Iraq before it can be made "secure" for elections. But even then, his promise is only an empty word, full of sound and fury and signifying nothing Iraqis can understand. The more he fails to deliver on rebuilding their infrastructure (nowadays we are blowing up more than we are building) and securing the peace, the less Iraqis want anything to do with his idea of "democracy". It’s not truly outrageous to say that Iraqis might elect Saddam Hussein if he were on the ballot, preferring the stable security he provided to the devastating insecurity that is all Bush has delivered.
On the other hand, Kerry can and would draw around him people of good sense about international affairs, to provide intelligent guidance for America in the years ahead. This would not be good for bin Laden, because if we understand him, and speak the language and culture of Arabs as Bush could never do, then this works against bin Laden’s goals. He needs to keep America angry and stupid. Look at the Bush Presidential campaign: promote anger, hatred and fear in the general population. Now that’s a portrait of stupid.
"The enemy of my enemy is my friend." –Arab proverb.
So. What is there about George Bush that bin Laden likes? Well, there is no denying that George Bush is the greatest recruiting officer the al-Qaeda Movement has ever seen. If Bush had gone after bin Laden at Tora Bora and killed him, then had the good sense his Daddy did in the first Gulf Oil War and go home, al-Qaeda would be a minor player on the world stage. But, as some blond woman yelled out on Fox Newsytainment Friday night, "the War on Terrorism is not going to end in a few years, it’s going on for 40 or 50 years!"
Yep. That’s what Bush has caused. Endless war for generations into the future. "Invisible" flag-draped coffins as far as the eye can see. And this suits bin Laden just fine. He knows we cannot win a war against a people who believe that dying is the best way to get to heaven.
Bin Laden also understands why Bush switched his focus from Afghanistan to Iraq. He knows, far better than most Americans do, that Cheney’s plan to invade Iraq was on the drawing board even before Bush’s selection to office. He knows what every Arab in the middle east knows: Bush’s Second Gulf Oil War, like the first one, is ONLY about who controls the oil under Arab sands. Some 65% of the World’s oil reserves are in the Persian Gulf States, none of which are democracies. By contrast, the US sits on only 3%, but uses 25% of the world’s oil. Now you know why Oilman Cheney cooked up the plan to invade Iraq about 6 years ago. They only needed an excuse.
An organized bunch from Saudi Arabia provided the excuse on 9/11. One has to wonder what other excuse would have been used by Oilman Bush to invade Iraq, had the tragedies of 9/11 not happened. Clearly, they had been cooking up the phony WMD excuse for some time.
Bin Laden knows that the Cheney/Bush Administration’s absolute dedication to securing control over Iraq’s oil will keep Bush tied down in the desert for years to come, and will make it impossible for him to go after the Movement as it grows to threaten other free nations around the world.
As the Movement expands, expect kidnappings of Americans and ransoms to become a world wide al-Qaeda pastime. Just how will Bush send the Reserves and National Guard to 60 al-Qaeda infested nations around the world? This is the unintended consequences of Bush’s inability to plan, or design, or figure out, or guess, or surmise — or think.
So. You have a choice on November 2.
Vote for John Kerry.
Or vote for Osama bin Laden’s choice.